Development is likely in the area leading up to the east coast of Florida
ORLANDO, Florida. – We are keeping a close eye on a late season developing area in the Tropics that could become a subtropical or tropical storm over the next few days. As it moves up from the Caribbean, models are in better agreement that it will have a significant impact east of Central Florida by midweek.
Sunday morning, National Hurricane Center designated this system as Invest 98L. This means it will now be investigated by storm chasers over the next few days and computer models will be created to focus on this one area.
As of 1 p.m. Sunday, the NHC gave Invest 98L an 80% chance of tropical development over the next two days, 90% over the next five days.
Based on the latest models, even in the subtropical or tropical low more than 400 miles from Florida, conditions will be felt as early as Monday with coastal and offshore conditions. already considered very dangerous.
The following spaghetti models have been confirmed by 3:00 PM at the NHC:
Invest 98L could be at or near hurricane strength by the time it approaches the northwestern Bahamas and the east coast of Florida on Wednesday and Thursday, according to the NHC.
Life-threatening rip currents, choppy surf and large breaking waves are expected to continue, in addition to the growing concern of beach erosion at high tide.
On Tuesday, we could see wind gusts up to 30 mph inland and up to 40 mph along the coast. Conditions continue to deteriorate, with seas forecast to reach 9-13 feet offshore.
As Invest 98L heads north near the Bahamas, it will begin to interact with the large ridge, sending it rapidly to the west-southwest by Tuesday afternoon. After this point, the models start to diverge on the way down.
On Wednesday, a strong subtropical or tropical system will gain speed and some intensity as it moves southwest toward the northern Bahamas. Models suggest tropical moisture will arrive before noon Wednesday. The EURO model guidance has a faster southerly track, with the GFS bringing a slower storm to Central Florida and the Panhandle. The slowest model is the Canadian one, which shows the system approaching Thursday afternoon.
With that being said, and in many communities still dealing with the effects of Hurricane Ian, we should not take this system lightly. Depending on the strength and track of the low, the impact of rainfall and flooding could be a major concern.
The National Hurricane Center also highlights another area in the tropics near Bermuda. It has a 70% chance of becoming a brief storm late Sunday.
The next two names on the 2022 hurricane list are Nicole and Owen.
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