Uganda’s Ebola outbreak to kill 500 as response repeats Wuhan’s mistakes
The latest epidemic will also become the third deadliest in the world. Between 2014 and 2016, 11,000 people died from the West African epidemic, while 2,287 deaths were reported in the Democratic Republic of Congo between 2018 and 2022.
Recent Ebola outbreaks have been controlled by vaccinations, but due to the Sudanese strain of the virus affecting Uganda. there is no vaccine.
The Telegraph understands that the current projections are not a worst-case scenario but are “all based on current rates”. [continuing]… without it (a) getting better or (b) getting worse.”
Sam Scarpino, co-founder of the think tank Global.Health, said the model fits the “back of the envelope” calculations, but the lack of cases in other countries gives reason to be optimistic that the number of undetected infections is limited.
The best scenario “has already passed”.
However, sources close to Uganda’s response said they would not be surprised if the death toll reached 500, as most infected people are currently only diagnosed after five days of symptoms.
“That’s one of the biggest problems with this outbreak right now [and] means they may have already spread it, and it affects their chance of survival,” said one person, who asked not to be named for fear of retaliation.
Although the World Health Organization initially stressed that Uganda had the resources to quickly contain the virus, the agency raised its threat assessment in late October. It warned that “the risk can be assessed as very high at the national level and high at the regional level” and expressed concern that patients were not being identified and isolated quickly enough.
“In terms of scenario planning, we have three scenarios,” Abdi Mahamoud, acting director of the WHO’s Alert and Response Coordination Department, told reporters last week. “The best scenario is one: we have already passed that stage.
“The second scenario is sustained transmission, where the outbreak is confined to a specific area but can also spread. And the last one is the worst scenario. So the government should try all possible measures to contain this outbreak.”
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